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My predictions about the Nintendo Switch 2 years after...

Started by gameblabla, April 29, 2019, 01:15:04 AM

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So a few years ago, i had made a post in the Switch thread about the Nintendo's Switch future.
...I'm glad to say that i wasn't fully accurate.

Nintendo did some changes to their policies, which explains why some of my predictions were wrong.
For example :

QuoteIndie devs starts releasing games for it and they also complain about the tedious approval process, which has not changed much.
They did end up smoothing out the process of releasing indie games on their platform, so much in fact that it has become much easier to release an indie game on the Switch than even the Xbox one or now the PS4.
(which i'll talk about it later)

QuoteTo some, Switch's future already becomes predicable.

Even after Nintendo releases games after games, this again does not translate into better third-party sales
To be fair, Nintendo still does this on the Switch and that led to some complains from some people.
But with the new influx of indie games as well as quality games from Nintendo,
this does not really matter even though they still have their tendency to pump out Wii U ports or in some cases 3DS ports to the Switch.
(Looking at the Donkey Kong games, Captain Toad, Yoshi's Wolly World and more)

Quote...only hardcore fans ended up buying it and the Switch sales does not translate into third-party software sales.

AAA developers are already complaining about the lack of power to the device and how poorly the Switch version sold.
It's surprising to see how Nintendo still ended up selling that much Nintendo Switches despite it coming with absolutely no multimedia features and having a still somewhat subpar hardware.
In response to the Switch's success, some developers attempted ports of AAA games like Doom as well as the FIFA games.
While these worked great, it was not always a smooth transition, as Ark Survival Evolved showed.
In the end though, it seems that most people on the Switch are content with the exclusive games on it as well as indie games,
even though they lack some of the AAA games.

QuoteMeanwhile, Sony and Microsoft keeps improving their devices by making VR yet even more cheap than before and bringing it to the masses.
VR is still at its infancy, even now. Sony made a few baby steps with PSVR but that device unfortunately has a lot of drawback and isn't as immersive as the other VR devices.
Microsoft made no real attempt at a consumer VR device for masses yet.
The other VR devices for PC are way too expensive, while the Googles for phones are literally useless and provide no immersion.
So far, it was a huge blunder on my side.

QuoteThe PS4 and Xbox One S were already inexpensive a few months ago (230$ and 250$) and on top of that, they got a huge library of games.
This is true and it's even possible to buy an Xbox One used for less than 100$ if you're lucky.

While they are still popular machines for playing their respective exclusive titles and games like Fortnite, i already feel like they are at the end of their lives.
And this does worry me about the next generation as they will literally bring nothing new of values to consumer.
I hate to say but Nintendo absolutely got it right by going portable, even if they too made questionable decisions.
(Nintendo LABO for me at least. Great marketing gimmick but no real use/value)

QuoteIn addition to that, games suffers from horrible frame-rate drops when the device is undocked.
They are also quick to realize the Switch has a bad battery and it's not practical as a portable device.
The media capabilities are limited and the environment is very closed, making very hard to watch movies easily.
Streaming on the device is disappointing and they are stuck with Netflix at 1080p, no 4K available.
Nintendo also crippled the internal browser so gamers can't play HTML5 games with sound.
The one thing i could predict right, in fact the Nintendo Switch has no internal web browser !

(other than the one that is used for hotspots requiring a password)

There are no way of watching movies locally and not even Netflix is available there.
Sucks for Nintendo as it would make their device even more attractive and they would absolutely destroy Microsoft & Sony should they change their mind.

(It's possible though they are not against it and that legal issues are preventing them to do so across regions)

QuoteHowever, gamers who own the device are quick to point out how disappointing the games look on an HDTV :
games are stuck at 720p and look awful on 1080p/4k Television.
This was another mistake on my part, as i would assume that games/OS would take the cheap route of not allowing resolutions beyond 720p over HDMI out.

In fact, this is not the case and some games like Super Smash Bros Ultimate run at 1080p over HDMI out.
Other games are more conservative and use a wide variety of resolutions, still slightly above 720p.

Quote5 years after the Switch, Switch sold less than expected : 25 millions rather than the 100 millions they expected it would sell.
It sold around 35 millions switches in around 3 years of lifespan, which is not bad.

However, it is still disappointing and they only managed to beat the N64 around the same amount of time.
I'm not even among the buyers though but i still look at what they are doing and it's very tempting to get one.

What happens next though ?

What about the 3DS line ?
Right now, Nintendo is in an awkward position of effectively supporting two, different handleds.
The Switch is better supported but has lousy battery life, while the 3DS is on life support, has subpar hardware but has much better battery life.

That's not to say that the 3DS is bad but given that they have, in my opinion, something better for pretty much everything, this does leave some question.

My guess is that they will streamline everything and just go all out on the switch.
The rumors seem to suggest so, as Nintendo is currently planning on releasing a Slim model as well as a Pro model.
It's possible that Nintendo had managed to increase the battery on the Slim model, to the point that releasing a successor to the 3DS would be pointless.

We can also look back at when they released the Nintendo DS in 2004.
At the time, they said that the NDS was a 3rd pillar along with the GBA and Gamecube.
But what eventually happened is that the NDS took over the GBA and killed it.

In handsight, this made no sense as the NDS had backward compatibility with GBA games. If so, why bother with it ?
On the other hand, it does explain why they would release devices like the Game Boy Micro and the Game Boy Advance SP AGS-101.

I believe Nintendo is back to doing the same thing again, and ultimately they will do as works best.

Beyond the Nintendo Switch... ?

What if they indeed decide to drop the 3DS line, go all out on the Switch.
What would they effectively do in the next 5 years in order to sustain themselves ?
I believe this question is more important now than it was 10 years ago.

Nintendo is no longer into making home consoles, they have to compete with not only Sony & Microsoft, but also mobile and PC games and an ever-shifting market
that is over-satured with games, even more so than it was during the Atari 2600 era. We have never seen the likes of it.

Would there be even a console beyond the Nintendo switch ?

Unfortunately, i do not have answers for you.
They did try to experiment with VR (as part as Nintendo LABO), however the reviews are not positive.
They still have a long way to go and it's possible they might encounter an impasse.
For now though, they keep on doing what they do best.
  • Calculators owned: None (used to own an Nspire and TI-89)

DJ Omnimaga

I sure didn't expect it to sell this fast. I am sure it won't outsell the DS and Wii but it will outsell the Xbox One I think. Seems like third party titles are also in larger numbers than expected
  • Calculators owned: TI-84 Plus C Silver Edition, TI-84 Plus CE, Casio fx-CG10, HP Prime, fx 1.0 Plus, fx-7400G Plus, fx-9750G Plus, fx-9860G, HP 39gII
  • Consoles, mobile devices and vintage computers owned: Huawei P30 Lite

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